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Abstract
Background: Digital government maturity is assumed to raise public service quality, but longitudinal subnational evidence is scarce and rarely separates whether well-digitised governments simply perform better from whether becoming more digitised makes a government perform better.
Objective: To estimate the association between within-entity change in electronic government maturity and the ordered transition in public service performance predicate among Indonesian local governments, and to distinguish that estimand from the lagged-level association.
Methods: Two Indonesian national open datasets for 2023–2025 were linked on normalised agency names: the Sistem Pemerintahan Berbasis Elektronik (SPBE) maturity index and the Indeks Pelayanan Publik (IPP) performance index. Guided by technology enactment theory, 194 consecutive annual transitions from 135 entities within 665 entity-year observations were modelled with cumulative-link proportional-odds regression adjusted for baseline IPP, interval, and government level, with entity-clustered robust standard errors.
Results: The adjusted odds ratio for a better IPP transition per 0.5-point SPBE gain was 1.400 (95% CI 0.780–2.513; p = 0.261; Benjamini–Hochberg adjusted p = 0.420); proportional odds held for the exposure (p = 0.914). The first difference was null (β = 0.003; 95% CI −0.085–0.091; p = 0.953), whereas SPBE level predicted the following year's IPP score (β = 0.195; 95% CI 0.079–0.312; p = 0.001; adjusted p = 0.006). The design could detect only odds ratios of 2.31 or larger at 80% power.
Conclusion: Digital maturity and assessed service performance appear jointly produced by durable institutional capacity rather than by annual increments in digitisation. Assessment coverage moved by more than 40% between adjacent waves, so Indonesia's evaluation infrastructure must be stabilised before causal claims can be tested.
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